Forex Strategy HILO for GBPJPY FOREX Strategies

It is an instant profit in #GBPJPY. #NeuralTrader indicated a buy with good momentum and so we made 70 #pips in a quick time. If you can spend only a few minutes for #FX every day, then Neural Trader is your best shot https://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/

It is an instant profit in #GBPJPY. #NeuralTrader indicated a buy with good momentum and so we made 70 #pips in a quick time. If you can spend only a few minutes for #FX every day, then Neural Trader is your best shot https://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/ submitted by Wetalktrade to u/Wetalktrade [link] [comments]

The best moves are the ones when the short-term trend coincides with the long-term trend.And Neural Trader can detect such trades for you.Here is a recent performance in #GBPJPY where it rendered 75 pips profit.Get #NeuralTraderhttps://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/

The best moves are the ones when the short-term trend coincides with the long-term trend.And Neural Trader can detect such trades for you.Here is a recent performance in #GBPJPY where it rendered 75 pips profit.Get #NeuralTraderhttps://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/ submitted by Wetalktrade to u/Wetalktrade [link] [comments]

Is your #forextrading a mess? Sort out the issue by using “ #VelocityFinderNeuralTrader”, the genuine, #norepaintindicator. https://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/ Here is a proof for 70 #pips in #GBPJPY.

Is your #forextrading a mess? Sort out the issue by using “ #VelocityFinderNeuralTrader”, the genuine, #norepaintindicator. https://wetalktrade.com/velocity-finder-best-forex-trading-strategies/ Here is a proof for 70 #pips in #GBPJPY. submitted by Wetalktrade to u/Wetalktrade [link] [comments]

Lessons from gaining 500% in a week & losing about half of it

Hello, just want to share my experience trading forex this week. So I had about $55 in my trading account and started trading GBPJPY on Monday. Won 3 out of 4 trades. But the big wins came from the XAUUSD dump this week in which I took a lot of trades and I got lucky. Felt surreal when my account reached $350 and should’ve probably stopped. But still decided to enter trades and that’s where things got pretty bad. I still have an open trade as of writing and my equity is down. XAUUSD is a beast! Been trading for almost a year now but not regularly and I only trade small amounts. This is the 1st time I made such gain and I’m not sure if I can do this again.
Here’s a screenshot: https://i.postimg.cc/ZY37hRJX/6-F33601-E-C36-A-4702-A31-B-49986022-D6-F6.jpg
Lesson learned:
**UPDATE: Been getting DMs asking about my strategy. I use price action and I don’t use any indicators. I draw 1-2 trend lines based from previous strong support and resistance. I want a clean chart as it’s easier for me. I also did 5 years worth of backtesting. My biggest issue, as I’m sure you’ve noticed, are sticking to my trading plan (stop looking at the chart all the time after entering a trade, and closing too soon due to reversals), and discipline (don’t FOMO and setting my goals).
I still don’t consider myself as a “trader” per se, so please do your own backtesting. I was also looking for the “best strategy” when I was starting out, until I realize that your results would largely depend on your attitude vs your strategy.
submitted by vongutom to Forex [link] [comments]

Understanding the Forex market

I'm fairly new to Forex. I've spent a great deal of time understanding Forex and I'm still immersing myself in as much information as I can find. I started a 100k demo account to practice strategies and feel as though I have a pretty good system. I trade on the daily chart and use a series of indicators and monitor shorter time frames to make sure things don't go awry. At the time I wasn't too concerned with leverage/margins. I'm currently practicing on a demo account of $2k taking into account leverage. I'm trading no more than 2 mini lots and 3-5 micro lots at a time such that I'm leveraging no more than $1k of "my money" and a $1k buffer. I'm pretending to use "max leverage."
My plan: Try to build $1k of profits. Reinvest profit to build to $2k. Turn $2k to $5k, $5k to $10k. Eventually get to a point where I can turn it into a sustainable income. Then transfer to a live account. Am I living in unicorn land with illusions of grandeur? I'm concerned with relying on using max leverage. Do people make sustainable incomes on Forex trading?
I'm in a trade of GBPJPY short at 10,000 units. Current profit is at $188.00. The trade value is $6509. According to IG brokerage the GBPJPY margin is 5%. Using max leverage I'm only using $325 of "my money." If I chose to trade 100,000 units, given I have the funds for leverage, I would have $1880.00 of profit. That seems like sustainable income territory to me.
Please guide me Forex community!
submitted by jd_ultra to Forex [link] [comments]

how do you compose your portfolio and how do you choose what to trade today ?

hello,
i have been trading for a few years, and it works (so far ;) ) but i think that now, the main thing i need to improve is the portfolio.
I choose this when i started : gbpjpy / eurusd / audcad / nzdchf and gold. The newbie me at the time thought this would be a good uncorrelated portfolio... not quite
My strategy allows me to trade almost whatever, options, stock, index, forex... and i trade in D1 so i can look at a lot of charts and take 1 or 2 trade a mouth on each charts. BUT this is not about the strategy (if it's possible to separate the two), lets just build a thread about how to select the right chart, it will probably help more people than just me.
I have seen the correlation tables, the relationship between some pairs and commodities, ect... but honestly so far i am still confused and trade chart that doesn't look correlated without real knowledge about it.
Sorry if i bring more questions than answers ! Thanks
submitted by jopopodu97 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Let's Talk About Trading Reversals

Let's Talk About Trading Reversals
I feel I could have done much better this week. The retracement of GPJPY on Friday from the 132.15 high got me out of the week at a profit, but I really think I should have done better. I'll spend the whole weekend dissecting my trades and working out where I may have made mistakes and where I can improve upon these.

Part of my reason for joining here was to teach things that work for me, and to learn about things working for others. The best thing for me is for people to provide well thought out and well presented suggestions on ways I can improve upon weaknesses. I've always made my bigger major breakthroughs in trading based on this. Small observations, well explained by people who know what they're talking about.

I've had it said to me many times here that I can not take criticism, but that's not true. I assure you, I'll be 1,000 times more critical of my mistakes that anyone else. I will still be working on them long after others forget them. What I am not interested in is comments I've got here that usually amount to, "You're stupid, and I think I am a better person than you". I'm not here to learn how to be egotistical, I already know how to do that.

In this post I'll discuss how trading reversals, and particularly how I traded shorts on GBPJPY this week. I'll start by doing a run through of the trades I took.
Thing started well, shorting on Monday 129 - 128.25 (Here my sell was stopped out right before it dropped 100 more pips, so I was not happy with this winning trade. I view it as 100 pips loss in some ways).

Then I bought the low of 127 with a 128 target, but took profit and reversed 127.40.

Stopped out this trade, and sold 128.
Stopped out, and sold 128.50.
Stopped out, and decided to stop selling. Worked on a more developed plan in case the market continued to go up.
Bought 130 area, and took profit 131.
131.50 area started selling again, got some stop outs. Sold high 132.15.

All my stops were 10 - 20 pips. Very tight for this pair.

Where I'm going to focus here is 131.50 - 132 area. Getting stopped out for 10 pips when the market goes up 300 more is fine for me. I can work on filtering these trades, but as far as I'm concerned I am losing these well. Someone commented on one my GBPJPY sells signals from 128.50 saying I was "Rekt" when it went to 130 ... but I got out for 15 pips. This is exactly the type of useless "feedback" that's obviously worth ignoring. Hopefully this post can be a more constructive conversation.

So here is where I am starting to sell GBPJPPY and getting spiked out. I call myself out on the mistake I am making.
https://preview.redd.it/g3k0sfndi1l31.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfc6b9c8afeea66a4292301c5b3f143062bf02f7

I then took up my own advice, set some limits. Took some more nominal stop losses for 10 pips or less and got in a good trade 132.15.

https://preview.redd.it/87xbdrhcj1l31.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=33ca2e15bbe216f9fb3fe1b00e885a1c63aaafea
https://preview.redd.it/4rmiujljj1l31.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=7103dfefb681d8db748cefd3c6ab0fcae2b5fd2b
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/czyoo6/i_think_a_huge_gbpjpy_sell_is_due/ez7any5/

I added to my sell 132, 132.05 and 131.90.

The end result of this was profitable, but I know I can do better. This is one of my known areas of improvement.
I'd be interested in sharing ideas and thoughts with people on how to improve here. These have to be comprehensive, though. Including entries, exits and Rprobability assessments. Saying things that amount to cliches and catchphrases do not help. I've also thought of the obvious things.

Options for Trading Reversals



So now we'll get onto some of the options we have to trade this move, and the risks and rewards we get in each one.
I've covered what I've done here. My risk is I am going to invariably get whipsaw stop outs, have to re-enter a few times and have random people telling me I got "rekt". I can deal with all of these, because I'm getting into RR situations that have 10 - 20 + pay outs with the ways I structure positions, add to winning trades and trail stops. I need to be successful something like 7% of the time doing this, and I am successful more than that. Makes sense, to me.

These are the other ways of trading this I am interested in speaking about.
https://preview.redd.it/namn0aahl1l31.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=02a972ce8f8f42110fb0a3eccf7122950cda68ba
We'll take them one at a time, and I will explain these setups as I think the people are saying to trade them. If I'm wrong, kindly correct me. I'm just basing this on what people who usually say this give when asked to elaborate (assuming they do).

So here is number one. We wait for a sell signal.

https://preview.redd.it/4x504q3ul1l31.png?width=1342&format=png&auto=webp&s=109a2440bd4a424c1e2577ab3ad69fcc76dd7ccb
What now? How do we enter?
If we enter at the low, we're fair game for stop hunting unless we use the highs. Inside of the swing down leg we can expect price to trade in there, even if it's going to fall more. So if we enter after the signal, we have high stop out probabilities unless above the high. Above the high, we have usually 80 - 100 pip stop.
So it seems this is not offering the same RR if we assume the market does top and then fall 500 pips. It's a less profitable trade, or the same, even accounting for it having higher win rate.
Our second option is to wait for the retrace and limit in. This is a great trade.
https://preview.redd.it/rumv8utfm1l31.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=16245690beae9c11d10dc569f1e83e251127db6f
Trouble is, this does not always happen. The retrace is not always predictable. So when we use this method, our reward is good entries, good RR, "confirmed" signal. Our risk is missing a big move. For the highly risk adverse, this is probably ideal, but for those who can take small losses for a big win, this is not optimum.

Our other option is to place sell stops, so we enter into momentum. I've shown the areas for this in red.
https://preview.redd.it/kfyaqwsxm1l31.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=b35911a87fe57e2ae1c153d368da2ea905f761c9
We have the same issue on RR. Where to place the stops. Has to be above the high, really. Or we have the same risk of small stop outs we have in my method, but we have a worse price.

Here I've circled all the points these alternative confirmed entry strategies flag up sells.
https://preview.redd.it/1zu6ydkcn1l31.png?width=819&format=png&auto=webp&s=184d17cb15574dccf5aa849b0cac74a36fd42f86
On all occasions using the breakout rules, they enter at almost the worst possible price. On the retrace rules, they enter at good price but lose. My trades have engaged the same levels of this (apart from me stopping selling before the 129 trap). I've lost 10 -20 pips on them, and these other signals generated losses of 60 - 80 pips. Same bets, same levels. 1/4 losses, and 400% more RR per trade.

Could those who have different ways in which they approach these reversals explain their rational for it in the same way I've went through mine here?

1 - What the entry signals is.
2 - Where to enter.
3 - Where to stop.
4 - Applying this to losing signals as well as winners (not cherry picking).

If you do this better than I do, I'd be interested in how you do it and your rational for it.
I'm also interested in well thought out explanations of mistakes I make/areas I can improve, as long as it's comprehensive. I'm not the best I can be. I want to get better. I am very keen to learn where I can. I always deeply consider constructive critics and ideas based on what I do (or things others do).
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
See first: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/

Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/5gfhwxcy6wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d4806dee84a7bbe073e08d153da946222893eeb

Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.

https://preview.redd.it/kvnrqau07wj31.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e96f02a189a811d511ef7946037fd670d106b1b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/a44rzzs47wj31.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=43fbebe933fa80d1c24a1f8fde2c08653d125d18

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

https://preview.redd.it/ghvgzr577wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=caeedc4f48ab3b4d1ed921ef519a33200db62868

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.

https://preview.redd.it/m9ga8pp97wj31.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ed069207b8297c0ab67d6608206b57a1b354fef
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.

https://preview.redd.it/68pa0bgc7wj31.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f78ce2c11f267f32dacd17c8717dcfa1f8bcb6a
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/d5qwm8vg7wj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad2deba557f9f6d8a0fe06d34cbe3307e7cccc24

These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/mpoqz4aj7wj31.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=710d72120085c1e137c800f57a36f910f78eebcb
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger context as this.

https://preview.redd.it/tkfzja5n7wj31.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=47fc014619a61728f16e1527e729b82edad6b94e

This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls. I know this looks insanely big ... but this is not much in the context of the theme of the last 50 years. This sort of thing has always been what happened when we made this breakout.

Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper context by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Why I am Not Afraid to Sell When it's Scary.

Why I am Not Afraid to Sell When it's Scary.
Whenever I take positions against current strong momentum in the market people comment telling me I am somewhere on the scale of brave/stupid. Really, I am just prepared.

Let's look at GBPJPY. On Friday I was selling aggressively into rises on GPJPY, and will continue to do so at various pre-determined technical level if it continues to rise.
Some people will say things like, "But it's all driven by what happens with Brexit!", and I respectfully disagree.
I have said some time before the Sterling rally what I'd do when it came.
https://preview.redd.it/j4oz2p55y2s31.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc70ea3a41b03620539fbd5cba1de44a2c8e291e
Source: https://www.reddit.com/usewhatthefx/comments/dav8nwhy_im_increasingly_engaging_in_sterling_trades/

I've discussed how I go about positioning into strong corrections and expect them to end in a strong move, which I refer to as a "ping swing".
https://preview.redd.it/2o1t0oqfy2s31.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=024bca754a15da1e3c666ea24244b33d7b456a1c
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctifde/forecasting_the_end_of_major_corrections_and/

In an analysis of over 50 years GBPJPY trading I've shown how it's always been in a predictable downtrend.
I am only willing to bet the next year will be like the last 50. It's not an outrageous idea.
https://preview.redd.it/zbg669aqy2s31.png?width=870&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ffd8d1c3647b1d958677d797c242ea608954c34
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cy4hjq/preparing_for_the_impulse_the_japanese_yen_surge/

I have also shown how when a trend correction is coming to an end, it will form a series of traps and then breakouts.

https://preview.redd.it/9ygquiv8z2s31.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=355a165814d58be32b84825abd913049a9eadac9

Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/


I plan ahead, so when I see big candles ... I do not lose my head (or my money).

I do all of this inside the structure of a solid risk management plan. https://www.reddit.com/usewhatthefx/comments/d3nvci/advanced_money_management_and_position_sizing/

I plan out everything I am going to do, and what I will do if I am wrong before any trading starts. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cuzm4f/planning_for_profit_things_to_now_to_trade_bette

Prepared.
submitted by whatthefx to TradingAlerts [link] [comments]

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge

Preparing for the Impulse: The Japanese Yen Surge
Against it's major counterparts, the JPY has been showing a lot of strength. It's now getting into areas where it is threatening breakouts of decade long support and resistance levels.

Opportunity for us as traders if this happens is abundant. We've not seen trading conditions like this for over 10 years on this currency, and back then it was a hell of a show! In this post I'll discuss this, and my plans to trade it.

I'm going to focus on one currency pair, although I do think this same sort of move will be reflected across most of the XXXJPY pairs. The pair I will be using is GBPJPY. I like the volatility in this pair, and along with the JPY looking continually strong and there being uncertainty in the GBP with possible Brexit related issues, this seems like an ideal target for planning to trade a strong move up in the JPY.

The Big Overview

I'll start by drawing your attention to something a lot of you will have probably not been aware of. GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend. All this stuff happening day to day, week to week and month to month has always fitted into an overall larger downtrend. In the context of that downtrend, there have been no surprises in the price moves GBPJPY has made. This is not true of the real world events that drove these moves. Things like market crashes, bubbles and Brexit.

https://preview.redd.it/9r6rnqo4rvj31.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=738602a2157e08c3f9ec6c588ae603edb5b71a36
Source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-JPY

I know this has been largely sideways for a long time, but it is valid to say this is a downtrend. The highs are getting lower, and the lows have been getting lower (last low after the Brexit fall and following 'flash crash' some weeks later).
This is important to understand, because it's going to help a lot when we look at what has happened over the last 5 - 10 years in this pair, and what it tells us might be about to happen in the coming few months and year to come. If the same pattern continues, a well designed and executed trade plan can make life changing money for the person who does that. I hope those of you who take the time to check the things I say here understand that is very feasible.

The last Decade


In the same way I've shown you how we can understand when a trend has corrective weeks and see certain sorts of price structure in that, from 2012 to 2015 GBPJPY had a corrective half decade. In the context of large price moves over decades, this was a sharp correction. I've discussed at length in my posts how sharp corrections can then lead into impulse legs.
https://preview.redd.it/j5q3jrtvsvj31.png?width=1269&format=png&auto=webp&s=a76fdb3de6e943234352f4b9832483c35e082a4b
I've explained though my posts and real time analysis and trades in the short term how in an impulse leg we would expect to see a strong move in line with the trend, then it stalling for a while. Choppy range. Then there being a big spike out move of that range. Making dramatic new lows. Then we'd enter into another corrective cycle (I've been showing you weeks, it's more practical. We'll be looking at the same thing scaled out over longer, that's all).

At this point, we can say the following things which are all non-subjective.
  • GBPJPY has always been in a downtrend.
  • A clear high after a strong rally was made in 2016
  • Since then, GBPJPY has downtrended
5 year chart confirms the latter two points.

https://preview.redd.it/ac1kjwr1uvj31.png?width=1249&format=png&auto=webp&s=f94861cab758119231fff168233bebac832cf456

These are interesting facts. We can do a lot of with this information to understand where we may really be in the overall context of what this pair is doing.

The Clear Trend Cycle of the Last 5 Years


If we were to use the Elliot Wave theory, based on the above data we have we'd expect to see down trending formations on the weekly chart over the last 5 years. These would form is three distinct trend legs, each having a corrective pattern after. We would expect to see after that a strong correction (corrective year in down trending 5 year cycle), it stop at the 61.8% fib and then resume a down trend. The down trend would form similarly in three main moves.

Whether or not you believe Elliot Wave theory is any good or not, this is what it would predict. If you gave someone who knew about Elliot trading the facts we've established - they'd make this prediction. So let's see how that would look on the GBPJPY chart. I'm having problems with my cTrader platform today, so will have to use MT4 charting.


https://preview.redd.it/s8vguiimvvj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d023db99041c9ba91f61ab87d3bd48de8da514
These are three distinct swings from a high to a low. It also fits all the other Elliot rules about swing formation (which I won't cover, but you can Google and learn if you'd like to). We then go into a period of correction. GBPJPY rallies for a year.
This corrective year does not look very different from a corrective week. Which I've shown how we can understand and trade though various different posts.
https://preview.redd.it/yowdmil6wvj31.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=bad142803823e6a7f8af56ef63ebebc574210c4b
Source: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cwwe34/common_trading_mistakes_how_trend_strategies_lose/

Compare the charts, there is nothing different. It's not because I've copied this chart, it is just what a trend and correction looks like. I've shown this is not curve fitting by forecasting these corrective weeks and telling you all my trades in them (very high success rate).

What about the retrace level?
When we draw fibs from the shoulders high (which is where the resistance was, there was a false breakout of it giving an ever so slightly higher high), it's uncanny how price reacted to this level.
https://preview.redd.it/axvtd22wwvj31.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=518f309232552ea33921e939b08d2bf28ba76f0b
This is exactly what the theory would predict. I hope even those sceptical about Elliot theory can agree this looks like three trend moves with corrections, a big correction and then a top at 61.8%. Which is everything the starting data would predict if the theory was valid and in action.

Assumptions and Planning


To this point, I've made no assumptions. This is a reporting/highlighting of facts on historical data of this pair. Now I am going to make some assumptions to use them to prepare a trade plan. These will be;

  • This is an Elliot formation, and will continue to be.
  • Since it is, this leg will have symmetry to the previous leg.

I'll use the latter to confirm the former. I'll use a projection of what it'd look like if it was similar to the previous move. I'll put in my markers, and look for things to confirm or deny it. There'll be ways to both suggest I am right, and suggest I am wrong. For as long as nothing that obviously invalidates these assumptions happens in the future price action, I'll continue to assume them to be accurate.

Charting Up for Forecasts

The first thing I have do here is get some markers. What I want to do is see if there is a consistency in price interactions on certain fib levels (this is using different methods from what I've previously discussed in my posts, to avoid confusion for those who follow my stuff). I am going to draw extension swings and these will give level forecasts. I have strategies based upon this, and I'm looking for action to be consistent with these, and also duplicated in the big swings down.
I need to be very careful with how I draw my fibs. Since I can see what happened in the chart, it obviously gives me some bias to curve fit to that. This does not suit my objective. Making it fit will not help give foresight. So I need to look for ways to draw the fib on the exact same part of the swing in both of the moves.

https://preview.redd.it/xgvofjcl0wj31.png?width=823&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564bbe2ece9506c425397c672c16cd75a2766
These two parts of price moves look like very similar expressions of each other to me. There is the consolidation at the low, and then a big breakout. Looking closer at the top, both of them make false breakouts low before making a top. So I am going to use these swings to draw my fibs on, from the low to the high. What I will be looking for as specific markers is the price reaction to the 1.61% level (highly important fib).
A strategy I have designed around this would look for price to stall at this level, bounce a bit and then make a big breakout and strong trend. This would continue into the 2.20 and 2.61 extension levels. So I'm interested to see if that matches in.

https://preview.redd.it/4tl024da2wj31.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a813fcdf67a0fac41ff1d9a44b540fd1298106
Very similar price moves are seen in the area where price traded through the 1.61 level. The breakout strategy here predicts a retracement and then another sell to new lows.
On the left swing, we made a retracement and now test lows. On the right swing, we've got to the point of testing the lows here. This is making this level very important. The breakout strategy here would predict a swing to 61 is price breaks these lows. This might sound unlikely, but this signal would have been flagged as possible back in 2008. It would require the certain criteria I've explained here, and all of this has appeared on the chart since then. This gives me many reasons to suspect a big sell is coming.

On to the next assumption. For this fall to happen in a strong style like all of these are suggesting, it'd have to be one hell of a move. Elliot wave theory would predict this, if it was wave 3 move, these are the strongest. From these I'm going to form a hypothesis and then see if I can find evidence for or against it. I am going to take the hypothesis that where we are in this current GBPJPY chart is going to late come to been seen in a larger content as this.

https://preview.redd.it/ctcill674wj31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=538847fce98009b8177e079aa6a3ecba0684e73f
This hypothesis would have the Brexit lows and correction from this being the same as the small bounce up before this market capitulated. This would forecast there being a break in this pair to the downside, and that then being followed by multiple sustained strong falls.
Since I have my breakout strategy forecasting 61, I check for confluence of anything that may also give that area as a forecast. I'm looking for symmetry, so I take the ratio of the size of the first big fall on the left to the ratio of when it all out crashed. These legs are close to 50% more (bit more, this is easy math). The low to high of the recent swing would be 7,500 pips. So this would forecast 11,000.
When you take that away from the high of 156, it comes in very close to 61. Certainly close enough to be considered within the margin of error this strategy has for forecasting.

I will be posting a lot more detailed trade plans that this. Dealing specific levels to plan to engage the market, stop trailing and taking profit. I'll also quite actively track my trades I am making to enter into the market for this move. This post is to get the broad strokes of why I'm looking for this trade in place, and to help you to have proper content by what I mean when you hear me talking about big sells on this pair and other XXXJPY pairs.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

GBPJPY Trend Invalidation Signals and Contingency Plans

GBPJPY Trend Invalidation Signals and Contingency Plans
Took multiple losses on GBPJPY as it ran through all the trend continuation setups, and the persistence of how it has done this move is something that gives us reason to re-assess trade plans, and be diligent on risks as well as opportunities the conditions we are now in may present.

I feel like I've seen this movie before. Usually when getting squeezed in a trend continuation, there are a few hits you have to take and then there is a big pay off. As a general rule, the better the move will be the harder it is to position for. So early losses on this were all within the acceptable margin of error in this strategy (I think I also made setup errors, which was bad. I can do better on that). After we ran some more setups (that looked fully valid at time of execution), I noped out. Stopped selling, and waited to see what happened.

Last time I remember being on the wrong side of such a fierce move of this form on GBPJPY was similar. Done well shorting, scalped some buys at a support, then reversed into the "correction" - and it went parabolic against me. I remember this well, because in the coming week there were news reports of the GBP having it's best day/week in a yeadecade (I forget specifics, but GBP was in the news for the rally). In the week after that, the high was made .... because that was when Brexit happened.

What happened there, from a charting perspective, is we went into a 2 week corrective cycle and then started another impulsive wave. If this happens we may see something spectacular in GBPJPY in the near term. This may feature a record breaking rally (or at least strong one) into 145, and even 155 (current price 130). From there, we may start a new trend taking the market into the large chart forecasts of 89 and 61.

I can retire if that happens. Absolutely. I'm going to plan, with various contingencies, for something like that possibly happening. In this post I''ll show what warnings signs we got over the last days as sellers. Where our main dangers will be as buyers. The levels as which we can be more sure buyers have won out in the short term, and also where the possible spikes low could come and how we'd trade them / what we'd do next.

I'll use MT4 charting for this analysis, since it will require a lot of different fibs and patterns assessment, I find fibs on MT4 quicker to work with than cTrader.

The Big Gartley Pattern


So the first thing we want to establish is where the buyers are coming from. Double bottom is accurate, but a bit vague. If we look closer, we can see the daily chart pinging off the 61.8 and 76 fib levels. This would be consistent with a Gartley pattern, and this would be a bullish reversal pattern (If successful). We have a couple probable scenarios here. One is a big break and move lower, and the other is a persistent move up in a small time frame trending chart form.

https://preview.redd.it/ycjwj3bsxmk31.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=94198bcff8cdf3e9b4cae306496bd91b5477a7f0
Let's look closer and see what the last days of trading have suggested to us about this.
Here is the 1 hour chart around the 76 level.
https://preview.redd.it/1c31uqv4qmk31.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=47df97d3f4f31238bacbb20282f8495399e01527
We've possibly formed the start of a second trend leg in the recent move up. Our best move here would be wait for a dip, buy into that and then run the trend upwards. We should see more strong moves like today, and these should be in nice structured form giving us easy entries and exits. This would be a good scenario for trading.
If a spike out is to form from this level, we'd now have it in a clear butterfly pattern. So we'd look for a 1.61 extension of this swing giving us a projected low of 125 area. This would be a harder move to trade. We either have to keep selling into the resistance levels and risk multiple small losses, or wait for momentum downwards and use breakout strategies. I feel method one has failed this week. We can perhaps look more at method two in a close under 128 (which will not happen if we are to trend).

https://preview.redd.it/djz31dxdrmk31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce05f051a785177e7598e8c4f430224183366013
As buyers, the possibility of this take out low move is our main danger. We have to be aware this can happen and it will be a fast move if it does. Risk control is important.

Bullish Scenarios

For now I am going to work on trade plans for if price remains above 128.50 and indicates bullish momentum. I want to work on targets and then reversal areas.

When we use the analysis above and consider we may be entering into big corrective leg, we can consider that this might be a 'ping swing' like move.

https://preview.redd.it/s9fyuyhmsmk31.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aa69ac8b99bbd3874593a60fcf6e76b930be911
Remember the main characteristics of a ping swing. It's very strong. The move is parabolic. There's a spike out of major levels, and then there is an impulse leg.
Weigh that against the price action I described the last time I seen the same setup on GBBPJPY running into Brexit. The market followed that same template of price movements, and then came down in spectacular fashion.
This is where our main opportunity is, and this is where it seem the smart way to be betting is at this time. If the lows made here are taken out, we can look for positions around 125 to load up for this (a spike out and rally is still valid).
In the immediate term, we can just buy dips. Use tight stops and get high RR if it runs up, have very small losses to the downside. A correction from 130.20 to 128.50 gives us a great buying opportunity to get started in this move (buying over 130 but under 130.60 I think is a bad trade. Better to wait)
If we can establish a good buy position and see a ping swing move (which would be 2,000 pips - and GBPJPY can do this without many pullbacks, it's wild) the profit potential on this is enormous. Very small risks can be taken for extreme profits on the other end. If we do this and make good profits in the run up to that, we can then use a portion of these profits to position aggressively on the 61.8 spike out, and maybe have big positions in a decade long breakout to the downside in GBPJPY.
Whether or not there is a spike out low, when buying our first target is 145.00. This is either buying from 128.50 or 125 if that trade does not work out.
It would be very dangerous to sell if there is a spike out low into 125. Selling here could be brutal in the whip against you (as could selling in the leg we have but not getting out quick). For some perspective on this, GBPJPY went from 145 to 160 in only a couple strong trading days the last time we had conditions similar to this. The possibility of this, makes it a bad time to be a seller - horrible time to be a stubborn one.

Wrap up.

No buys 130 - 130.50. Possible buys if there is a break of this.
Sells possible in this area, but risky. Not great RR. I'd not bother.
Buy level 1 - 128.50. 143 could be swing target here.
128 major bear break area. Danger of fast move here. Cut buys.
125 if met in spike, big buying area. Target 143 and stop 123 (tighter with price action).
145 first major upside resis. If we break this, 155.
Absolutely no selling into parabolic moves on GBPJPY at levels not mentioned here, isn't worth it.
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

Post Brexit Profit Analysis

I am a big believer in the concept that one of the best (maybe the best but it is subjective) ways to make money money in the markets comes down to patience and well timed aggression.
There are some extreme golden opportunities in the markets and to a trained eye they are often very easy to spot and relatively easy to trade.
The tricky bit is not losing during all the other times haha.
Patience ... well timed aggression.
I have been quite stagnant in my trading for a few weeks and then as the Brexit was due, got extremely active and we got the best trades of my FX life (in terms of how quickly the results came, we have had swing trades achieve similar results over 6 months or so).
We done far better than I expected but I had always been saying that the opportunity comes AFTER the Brexit, the market will mis price some things and as it happens, some things strongly broke SR levels.
So... now it is game time.
Not only on the Pound although it is in focus but in general this volatility jump presents multiple opportunities.
I will keep a running commentary on some of the analysis I have, moves I am looking to make and where I feel the money is to be made here if you'd like to follow along.
Things to take note of;
1 - Not all my trades win, I am rarely over 70% accurate over a longish time period.
2 - My strategies are risk:reward based and expected to be profitable on risk:reward basis.
3 - Money management used is a set percentage basis, so on every trade the same amount of risk is used, lot sizes are adjusted based on the number of pips in stop loss . http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-calculators/position-size helps with this.
4 - Correlation risk is real! If I am for example selling GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD and GBPNZD, to risk 2% on each trade is really more like a 8% risk .
This should be considered and to use 0.5% risk in each trade here would be shroud, rather than 2% in each. http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation
5 - Any thing I post is for educational purposes only, I am not telling you to trade anything in the markets, any trades you take are exclusively at your own risk and you should do you own analysis and due diligence.
6 - I am not your, or anyone's financial adviser. I hold no qualification for this, I am just a guy on the internet.
7 - The strategies and tactics I use are ones I have used for a long time and found them to be successful but there is absolutely no assurance they will be profitable in the future.
8 - At times there will perhaps be a portfolio approach or sympathetic hedging approach used.
Lets say for example. I am short on GBPUSD with a 300 pips stop and 600 pips target from a larger chart and the Pound is rallying against this position, I may start to look for short term momentum buys on GBPJPY,
Let's say the GU hits 300 pips stop and GY wins 50 pips for a 50 pips stop, because of the money management method used, the GY trade has covered the GU risk.
9 - If you can not afford the pips, you can not take the trade.
We are in volatile times and some stops will have to be several 100 pips and even at that be somewhat tight, if losing the trade on the smallest lot size you can trade would exceed an acceptable level of risk, do not trade.
10 - Don't think I have a 10 but we got to 9 and it's good to finish on a round number.
Analysis will be posted in comments.
submitted by sellitlikesoros to Forex [link] [comments]

Swing Signals Copy Trading Account Trades and Analysis 23rd January.

This is analysis and trading positions for this account. https://www.reddit.com/ForexCopy/comments/agrttm/simple_trend_signals_strategy/

Selling NZDJPY and GBPJPY.

NZDJPY:

Showing clear signs of downtrending. Failed to make new highs, and is starting to flag up sell signals from the Extreme Edge Strategy.

GBPJPY:

More interesting opportunity, since it is still very high. Drawing some correlation from the other Yen pairs, it is possible this is lagging them and will catch up. Giving it a better RR.


https://preview.redd.it/5pky1wwobbc21.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00192a0fc68a6f7c92bd41a433d64c9a06accbe
We are very overextended from this 1.61 level. Sometimes when we see reversals from it being overextended like this, they are strong one way reversals. Great times to enter high and maybe have a strong run down. Tiny stop levels above the highs.

To confirm the entry, Extreme Edge strategy has been used for the possible trend continuation set up forming as we speak.


https://preview.redd.it/42gw81w0cbc21.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ad97c2406f8d5ca6eda2fbb252a5749836a2ea5

Update: NZDJPY sells closed at even and set pending orders to sell a better entry level. As per Extreme Edge Strategy

https://preview.redd.it/0m2o2a390cc21.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=f545036c1f735aea4841e05a47d60de1265baf4f
GBPJPY: Running in profit. Possible retrace due.

https://preview.redd.it/20xutg4e0cc21.png?width=1364&format=png&auto=webp&s=4165e617b6c61b3244cb051977231d0269ebf27f


submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Hidden Scalping Code Download Making $4,000 $7,000 $9,000 everyday

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submitted by abcxyz01 to hiddenscalpingcode [link] [comments]

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GBP JPY 30 TO 50 Pips per day Forex Simple Strategy That's Always work In Urdu & Hindi By Tani Forex

#forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join my VIP group? Follow my trades, access our community trading chatroom, and access to exclusive educational c... Subscribe Channal link http://q.gs/Erxfz I crushed a GbpJpy long trade over two days for 150 pip gain. The trade was easily identifiable using the D2 forex strategy that I teach in the Advanced Dive... 30 - 50 Pips a day GBP JPY best Forex Forex strategy. Secret information Tani Forex Show Profit Trick. This Forex Trading strategy work. This is No indicator Forex Strategy. Experience Traders ... 20 pip GBPJPY Scalping Strategy. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE Th... Vip Signal Start 5,Day Free6/7 day Singal 99%Video Analysis 2/3 Day20$,monthPaypalBitconMaster Cardhttps://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAFk3DHa95PgaPdzgpw

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